For the Record

I am going to be making a few statements. I hope that although they will not be accompanied with proven facts and sources that are available, they will nevertheless be understood by the market maven familiar with technical trends, sociological and basic economics. I hope to offer a thorough explanation for all mentioned in the next few days.

Commodities and Oil have bottomed! We can expect to hear more about inflation than deflation in the coming months. For now it seems that major commodities, primarily oil (at 40) have bottomed. Many were hoping to see a $1 a gallon by summer. I find that impossible. Oil, corn, soybeans, are up 14, 13, and 9% respectively. This may be understood based on the following statement.

The Dollar has topped! Nothing scares the crap out of bond investors more than negative equity and that is all that the treasury is offering. When a 90-day treasury bill offers zero interest what incentive does the income investor have other than preservation of wealth? Inflation will roar we know. Its only a matter of time before the Dollar becomes essentially worthless to own. Which brings me to my next pet-peeve.

Buy physical Gold and Silver! If you haven’t yet you will be sorry. Just as you were if you didn’t buy the Dollar six months ago. Every analyst agrees that the precious metals will raly eventually. And its heyday is entrenched in the Dollar’s decine. Not a single major gold discovery has been found, while trillions of Dollars have been printed onto the market. It’s a stupid bargain.

Buy Stocks! No, not financials and homebuilders not yet as far as I’m concerned. But anything that would seem to gain if commodity prices rise is a sure thing, so long as it’s debt is under control (in some cases even if it isn’t). There are some serious delights in the market today including: Silver Wheaton (SLW), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), ConocoPhilips (COP) and LDK Solar (LDK) to name a few.

The Bottom is Neigh! The bottom in the general equities market is getting closer but we are not there yet. I still need to see one of two things: Panic or a Double Bottom. Until I see one of those I won’t buy. A Panic bottom will look like 1930, while a double bottom will look similar to 1970s, or 2003.

To be continued…


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