Run for the Hills!

Should we?

See that’s the problem with markets. I shorted the Dow at 13,000, knowing full well that it would go a bit higher. It rallied to 14,000. I shorted again. It fell to 11,500. I held. It proceeded to rally 1,500 points to 13,000. I shorted yet again.

Now, I’m sitting on gains of over 40% (yes that’s a portion of a diversified holding). But that’s my reward for over 12 months of patience.

Point is, you have to see things coming and stick to your guns. You have to run for the hills when no one else is, otherwise you’ll just get trampled on when everyone turns around.

It is interesting to note that the current financial downturn correlates awfully well with that of 1973-74. If so we can expect to see an intermediate bottom at the 10,350 level, and then see volatile prices thereon for the next few months, before the ultimate bottom somewhere around the 7,500-8, 500 level.

The Silver Lining
It’s not all green and dandy. I am still down in my silver position. I believe that precious metals still offer an enormous long term opportunity. Yet I’m down, but I wouldn’t dare sell. I’m now buying while everyone else is scared. Just like shorting the Dow when all around me were giddy.

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