Random Thoughts…


Precious metals lease rates bounced sharply positive and have since returned negative. Negative rates mean that owners of metal are actually paying to get their holdings back! Most interesting is that I have found no analysis on this development at all.
Could we crash? Some analysts see striking similarities between the current mess and that of the 1920s. People forget that it was the Crash that brought about the Recession, not vice versa. May history repeat itself? It’s not impossible. 

“Economic Emergency” were the words Obama said to express his feelings on the credit crisis. He heeds his advice from names like Buffett, Volcker, O’Neil and Rubin.

Mutual Funds. Most analysts say “Stay away” as they note high fees, market under performance and lousy management. But what if such funds were bought on value basis, at substantially lower than their Net Asset Value?

Investors are percieved to be sitting out of shares due to real estate. In truth however there are few bargains in the marketplace. Bear market bargains exist only when a great company is selling for a good price, when strong balance sheets are met with worse-than-expected business conditions. This has yet to be seen. (Especially with prices at 85x earnings!)

Quoting Ben Graham: “An investment operation, is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” – Security Analysis (emphasis ours)

On the Stock Market Decline: Who knew that shares can actually fall even if they aren’t being shorted? (Oh, and if someone could explain to me why shares went up while earnings plunged almost 10% I’d greatly appreciate it).

On Oil: People seem to believe that the oil rally is over. Let me ask this: If there aren’t any buyers than who is still selling? I think we can expect prices above $135 very soon. (Don’t forget that IEA report due out in November).

BEAR! I actually just read these words on CNBC’s Marketwatch: “Forget the stock market… Anything to avoid Wall Street”!

Could it Happen to Silver? No word on the 2nd largest commodity loss in history from anyone in the media. SemGroup lost over $3.2 Billion on oil speculations. It is believed that the company stood behind a $15 Billion position of over 100 million barrels!

A U.S. Financial Crisis in September. The first time I heard of such a thing I was convinced I was reading some conspiracy theorist attacking the satanic Illuminati for trying to create a new world order. But it seems that the facts and figures are pointing to some event of the sort. How bad is up to the gold-bugs and perma-bears to decide.

I am going out to buy some silver tomorrow. I strongly suggest you do the same!

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