Gas Likely to Fall More – USA Today

Is this a bottom?

1. I would reckon that even in the likely event of an economic slowdown, natural gas and oil are only a few points away from their possible bottoms. With Natural Gas off more than 40% off their highs and oil still struggling with prices lower than a year ago, I would give a lot more caution to an ever-increasing all-time high Dow in a bear market than to an oversold commodity in a bull.

2. With winter passing most of the “mild winter”sellers have already beaten down prices to a significant resistance level and will send the price upwards in case a cold front moves in.

3. It seems awfully hard to find any bulls left in the arena calling for higher oil prices. Build in the factor that the margin for a possible geopolitical strike on a nation in the Middle East has since been completely wiped out. Any surprise of any nature can now send oil prices up significantly.

Considering a bearish bottom of $38 a barrel and a previous high of $78, any price below $51 together with some resistance from those such as the OPEC would create a great buying opportunity with a significant margin of safety.

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