Predicting 2007

From The Mess That Greenspan Made

The Predictions for 2007

Worth noting that Tim claims for being accurate in his 2006 predictions were right on.
Of note:

* Housing will tank by 10% YoY
* The Dollar will not tank, but will decline
* Stocks will soar with some nasty sell-offs
* Interest Rates will remain the same
* Energy prices will climb
* Gold and Silver to soar
* Stagflation (slow economy, more inflation)
* Government numbers will stay the same
* Jobs will slow
* No major Hedge Funds will blow
* Recession in Q4

For 2006 Tim was off on a few things. If I had to pick them this year it would have to be

* Stocks soaring: Although I see continued buying in equities, especially with all the new ETFs, I still see a slowing even a major decline overall. Tim claims money from Real Estate will have to go somewhere but it may be very well balanced between stocks, commodities and bonds.

* Interest Rates will stay the same: It’s always hard to say what the Fed will do, but with the way Alan Greenspan and David Lereah spoke about housing bottoming this year, I wouldn’t be suprised to see the Fed put a priority on Inflation instead of a housing meltdown. Also with hundreds of Trillions of dollars in Interest Rate derivatives, 5.25 just may not be enough.

* No Major Hedge Fund Blow-ups: Even with Paulson we saw Amaranth go under from a simple bet. No, the whole Hedge-Fund-House-of-cards may not implode but some “scaffold” definitely will.

* I also reason that the 4th Quarter Recession will be announced then, but would have been in effect since early in the second quarter.

* I’m not sure what stage this dances on, but with millions of Baby Boomers set to receive funding in 2008, the assurance and faith behind the US Government as well as the US Dollar may take quite a hit.

We’ll see how it all fares out. Till then your best investments would no doubt be your safest, Gold and Silver. They should both outperform the market and even if they wouldn’t we be glad holding them.

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